Friday, July 8, 2011

This is what the rest of the season is...

The last couple games have restored my (and probably most fans') faith that this team IS talented enough to win and probably, without a catastrophe, talented enough to win enough games to either win the division or be very close at the very end.

The thing I (and most fans) are going to have to come to terms with is that much of the way the team has played the last couple weeks is likely the way much of the rest of the season may very well go.  None of the other competitors for the division have teams that are obviously dominant or well-rounded enough to take control.  The Reds starting rotation is muddled right now and frankly, just not that good.  And their offense just doesn't have enough complementary pieces to help Votto, Bruce and Phillips.  The Cardinals haven't completely solved their bullpen problem and unless they complete a trade for Heath Bell, they might not do so.  The Pirates?  Oh come on, now, I babble enough here that it's not even worth wasting time with them.  (Ok, fine:  McCutcheon is a very good and exciting player.  Their starting rotation is just good enough to make people pay attention and their closer is as good as it gets--right now.  I'd be very happy for the Pirates if they finally finish over .500).

But much like the Reds and Cards have flaws, so do the Brewers.  That's much of the reason why the 3 teams have gone through courses of very good and Good Lord! turrrible.  Thing is, in my opinion, the Brewers are better equipped to either simply succeed despite their flaws or fix them.  The Brewers have a by far better starting rotation overall and right now, their "worst" starter is a guy is the most likely to get better and return to his career norms than he is to just get worse.  If Greinke can finally get his results (runs, essentially) to match his peripheral stats (K/9, K:BB, BB) he could become fairly dominant.  I believe with much of what Nick with @BerniesCrew was saying last Sunday on the live blog that perhaps a minor mechanical correction, especially when in the stretch could be all this takes.  His strand rate is also at a low level that can't really be expected to continue.  (It's so low in large part because he's not stranding many because many baserunners are being cleared with home runs).

RRR has seemed to lock into the platoon of Morgan/Gomez and that's really done a lot in eliminating one black hole in the lineup.  Corey seems to be perhaps improving at the plate, so that will help.  That really just leaves the worst player in baseball and the Most Unimproved Player in baseball.  Yuni has shown no real ability to be better, so we shouldn't expect him to just get good.  But McGehee has proven he CAN hit, CAN drive the ball.  More patience with him is just as likely to pay off as a replacement is to be great.  A replacement for Yuni has to be found. 

Lastly, the bullpen "problems" are just not nearly as bad as casual fans might think.  Kameron Loe is not terrible nor does he need to be burned at the stake.  But he can't be used in situations where lefties are going to hit (or be likely to hit).  But, he is an important asset against most RHB.  Braddock MUST be used more efficiently.  He's NOT a LOOGY and RRR would do well to start to understand this.  Whether he's actually getting better or is just trying to give Loe a breather, RRR's bullpen management has been better in the past couple games.  (But I agree with @BrewersBar that Braddock would have been better to use in the 8th than Hawkins tonight). 

Essentially, largely only having to better use what this team has instead of having to go out and get actual replacements is what I think puts the Brewers in a better position than the Cardinals.  And the Reds need improvements out of a lot more of their rotation than the other competitors.

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