1st Half Review

I'm going to skip the 1st half grade thing (others do it better).  I'm not going to rant.  (How can you rant with the team in first place)?

I'm just going to sum up the good, bad and ugly.

The Good


Prince, Braun and Axford are really the VERY good.  There's really nothing to say here, because we all know what's what with these 3.  Nyjer Morgan is part of the good.  He brings extraordinary energy to the game.  But more importantly, he's filled another potential black hole on offense.  Consider all the game-changing, lead-taking plays where he's scored the tying or game-winning run, got the game-winning hit or was an important part of a late-game win.  And while he does give up something on defense, he's still a plus defender in CF.

Rickie falls into the pretty good to very good category.  He leads MLB 2B in HR and R and has a very good SLG.  He also leads MLB 2B in E (yes, I know...I'm trying to cut down this already ridiculously long post) and has a middling OBP and BA.

The Bad


Greinke.  He has amazing peripherals with 12.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 and a decent WHIP at 1.251.  But they aren't correlating to results.  This is largely because of his HRs (and especially HR with runners on).  Sure, he has a great record, but that's largely a function of run support and W-L is just the worst possible way to evaluate a pitcher anyway.  I ONLY put him in the bad because of the expectations.  A very good season from Randy Wolf, a fairly stable season from Chris Narveson and the W-L on Greinke's starts has covered much of the real worries we'd be having.  I still strongly suspect there's a mechanical blip or glitch that is out there that can be fixed and BAM! he's back to rock solid.  (Take a look at his last start where RRR went out to the mound and basically forced him to pitch from the windup with runners on).  Without fixing the flaw, 2 things could happen and both aren't good:  1) He keeps the peripherals but still gives up the runs.  The bad of this is the luck of getting run support for his starts could easily go away.  2) The results finally start matching the peripherals.  But this seems very unlikely because it's the flaw itself that's keeping them from matching.

The Ugly


Yuni.  Forget it.  You know it, I know it, Ray Charles knows it.  There are no minor league options here at all and trading for an improvement is the only option, which is probably very limited.  (The Brewers probably don't have the pieces to get a very good replacement, the replacement that could easily be had isn't likely to be a significant improvement or the middle replacement options are going to require taking on salary and injury risk).

Casey.  I believe he at least has the ability or opportunity to get better.  Maybe pitchers have adjusted.  Maybe he's just regressed.  But he has the history of actually DOING it.  Yuni has no history at all.  But, the leash on McGehee MUST be short.  As I tweeted earlier today, if this season is really "all-in", then every option has to be considered.  A failure to do so is abandoning all the other moves that were made this year in either misguided belief he'll "just get better" or effort to be nice to Casey.  Casey's a big boy. His feelings are unimportant.  Hit or get out of the way.  Fixing this problem is probably even harder than the Yuni problem, mainly because there are even fewer trade options for a 3B than a SS.  However, there is well-performing option at AAA right now.

My next point leads a little to my next "ugly", but this recently disclosed plan to have Gamel split time at 3B and 1B is truly idiotic.  Gamel had, up to now, played nearly exclusively at 1B in Nashville.  (Likely in an effort to have him be a strong competitor for the 1B job next season to replace Prince).  Plus, he's shown no real ability to defend 3B.  (And some even question his ability to hit).  So someone really has to explain to me why taking time from the full-time 3B (who is doing very well there) and taking the full-time 1B away from THAT position is going to help either one of them.  It's stupid and as many will tell you, I refuse to abide stupidity.  Don't want to promote Green to spell McGehee?  Fine, whatever.  But this plan, if implemented is a strong competitor to my next "ugly" for dumb, dumb, dumb.

RRR's bullpen mismangement


Setting aside the last week or so, make no mistake:  RR has failed, to any observer's eye, to properly manage the bullpen.  Certainly, there have been injuries that forced some into "roles" that they probably never were going to be used in.  And, ineffectiveness from those that are actually in their "roles" can frustrate anyone.  But the biggest issue is RRR's stubborn attitude.  Locking guys into set roles like Loe as "8th inning guy" is just...mind-boggling.  Every stat has shown he's far less effective vs LHB than RHB.  So if you know well ahead of time the 8th inning will feature 2 of 3 or 3 of 4 LHB, then it's folly to run a guy out there that has a worse split when there's a guy just sitting out there that is very good vs LHB and is good enough overall to not be a LOOGY.

The rest of the team ranges from "that's nice" (Lucroy) to "meh" (Hart).  Most of the rest of the starting rotation and bullpen fall into "that's good" category.  (I don't count crash and burns like Herrera or injuries here).

The team is nicely poised to win the NL Central.  Given Philadelphia and Atlanta's performance, it's seems very, very likely 1 of them will win the NL East and the other the Wild Card.  That puts the Brewers in the spot of having to win the division.  The real problem is only that there are a lot of competitors.  Houston and Chicago are done, forget it.  Cincinatti could be losing its grip if it can't stabilize its rotation or if Cordero goes into full-on meltdown, but they are still a strong competitor that can't be dismissed.  Pittsburgh's a wild card---they are young and unproven--can they hold on when it gets ugly in September?  St Louis is probably the best team of the 3 right now, but their offense is going to have to overcome their bullpen and the back end of their rotation.  If RRR sticks with a pen management plan that is match-up based rather than role-based, that will be a huge help.  I'm also going to assume that at some point, one of the following 3 things happen:  a trade for SS improvement, management loses patience with Casey and brings up Green (or Gamel--uggh), or McGehee just turns it around.  If those things come true, that may be enough to put the Brewers in it to win it at the end.  To me, the question mark is Greinke.  If he can fix whatever it is that is going on, that gives yet another solid starting pitcher.  If that happens, too, then the Brewers could easily pull away with a comfortable lead by mid-September.  Either way, it means a lot of fun and interesting baseball in the next 2 1/2 months.