Sunday, June 19, 2011

Will the Brewers play on the road kill their all-in season?

I didn't intend for this post to simply be a gripe about how the "Brewers can't hit on the road", but those problems can't simply be dismissed as something that eventually come back closer to the mean or that they will just "get better".

The Brewers split OPS on the road is 90.  So, yeah, not good, but not out right atrocious.  We are nearly 1/2 through the season (about a week at home from halfway and a series away from halfway on the road).  So sample size can't explain why the team's BA is 50 points lower on the road and their OBP is 60 points lower.  It might be just be a function of the road stats relative to the home stats.  (The home stats are so good, it makes the road stats look worse than they are).

The NL average slash line on the road is .248/.313/.378/.691 and the babip is .292.  The Brewers road slash line is .234/.292/.370/.662 and their babip is .267.  The babip is a clue to the Brewers poor road record.  (They are "unluckier" than the average road team, which is already bound to be "unluckier" than they would be at home).  The point being, in my view:  A team is generally worse on the road to begin with and the Brewers can't afford to be 10% worse than the average.

Personally, it seems very unlikely the Brewers could maintain their current performance at home all season.  That means that regardless of the reason, the hitters are going to have improve on the road.  And I really don't mean to beat a dead horse here, but 2 generally poor hitters on the team, Yuni and Gomez,  have some of the worst road splits.  Part of that improvement is going to have to come through less use of Gomez (already happening) and a replacement for Yuni.  I simply can't find any alternative to making a trade for a SS, even if he's only incrementally better.  Mevlin is all-in and if he can make this trade by giving up only 1 mid-level and 2 lower-level guy it's absolutely worth it.

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