Today's game featured some of the most remarkable defensive play I've seen generally and easily the best defensive performance of the season for the Brewers. Much of that good defense was certainly assisted by somewhat bizarre (and in some cases, downright inept) baserunning by the Dodgers. But great teams take advantage of mistakes by opponents and importantly, don't let them recover. The triple play really was something to behold--it wasn't one of those that you say "Hey, it might be...it could be..." because at least on TV, you didn't see Kemp trying to score until Prince threw home. He really, really struggled with that throw in the first few months of season, but has done much better in his last 3 or 4 attempts.
And Pittsburgh has a very old population with few babies, so the Cardinals suffered a 6-2 loss. That gives the Brewers a 6 game lead over St Louis and they are 20 games over .500. Their magic # is 35! Much of the good things about the Brewers have been beat to death, so looking at St Louis for the moment, they still must be viewed as dangerous. 40 games is still a lot and as injuries the team's already suffered have shown, anything bad could happen between now and the end of the season. First, I hope that doesn't happen to begin with, but it occurs to me that the team is so deep, it can make it through anything short of complete catastrophe. (I won't say it "aloud" even though I'm not superstitious and just let you define "complete catastrophe). I find myself rushing to the mailbox everyday to see if my invoice for playoff tickets has arrived. (Then, I just gotta hope I can make the money work--I'll be utterly crushed if I can't).
Signing off with a note of relief that both Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley for what I believe to be perfectly reasonable money. (Forget the slot #'s, they're utter nonsense without a rule requiring they be followed). It'd be nice to see Jungmann in September next year for his cup of coffee and bullpen help. It does make me dream of signing Greinke to an extension and these guys coming up to support him in the starting rotation.
Last note: Am I the only one who keeps forgetting Greinke is only 28?? Wow...
Monday, August 15, 2011
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Who would have thought?
The Brewers' performance of late is some of the best proof you could ask for that PITCHING MATTERS. In the last 2 games, the offense scored 3 runs, but won both games. The defense today again let the pitching down and against any other effective offense, the Brewers easily would have lost today. But, Saito did a great job (again) and Axford was Ax. Bigger to me, though: Marcum with a very trying and difficult 1st inning that required 22 (?) pitches...but he pitched like a man, got through 7 innings (check that: 7.2!) with no other runs. That's just---well, I can't even really describe it. How about this: The Brewers have the best ERA in the NL since the All-Star Break.
I think what I am taking away over the last 2 weeks is cliche, but still true: They do just what they need do to win and that players that CARE make a difference. You can get a summary anywhere, so I'll keep that out here...but I have a question: In the 8th inning, can anyone really explain why Hairston pinch ran for Lucroy anyway? I mean, Kottaras did come in at catcher in the top of the 9th, but he didn't have to--Lucroy could have caught and George could have still pinch hit when Wilson's spot came up in the 10th. I must be missing something here because there's no way Hairston is THAT much faster that Lucroy. In the succinct words of @mykenk: #whatever.
And the 10th is just another chapter in the Nyjer Morgan goofy saga. Personally, I think the best part was the Al-like stare down of a routine fly ball. (Nevermind that it drove in the game-winning run).
Let me just wrap with Counsell. He really has no place on the team. He actually is probably the best defensive infielder not on the DL, but honestly, every starting pitcher is probably a better hitter than he is at this point. The Brewers are either just that good that it doesn't matter or they've been lucky that their best play of the year has come with Weeks out and Counsell's ineffectiveness is hidden. Either way, it's obvious he's not going anywhere--especially with roster expansion only 2 weeks away, it makes little difference. But, RRR MUST, MUST, MUST stop starting him. It's going to come back and bite the team in the ass eventually. I'll stop here--but I've got high praise for Yuni in a later post. Hopefully with the playoff push coming, I'll be able to post a little more often. I promise: Unless it's huge or breaking, nothing Packers until at least the day after the first regular season game (and even then, just probably a commentary on the game).
I think what I am taking away over the last 2 weeks is cliche, but still true: They do just what they need do to win and that players that CARE make a difference. You can get a summary anywhere, so I'll keep that out here...but I have a question: In the 8th inning, can anyone really explain why Hairston pinch ran for Lucroy anyway? I mean, Kottaras did come in at catcher in the top of the 9th, but he didn't have to--Lucroy could have caught and George could have still pinch hit when Wilson's spot came up in the 10th. I must be missing something here because there's no way Hairston is THAT much faster that Lucroy. In the succinct words of @mykenk: #whatever.
And the 10th is just another chapter in the Nyjer Morgan goofy saga. Personally, I think the best part was the Al-like stare down of a routine fly ball. (Nevermind that it drove in the game-winning run).
Let me just wrap with Counsell. He really has no place on the team. He actually is probably the best defensive infielder not on the DL, but honestly, every starting pitcher is probably a better hitter than he is at this point. The Brewers are either just that good that it doesn't matter or they've been lucky that their best play of the year has come with Weeks out and Counsell's ineffectiveness is hidden. Either way, it's obvious he's not going anywhere--especially with roster expansion only 2 weeks away, it makes little difference. But, RRR MUST, MUST, MUST stop starting him. It's going to come back and bite the team in the ass eventually. I'll stop here--but I've got high praise for Yuni in a later post. Hopefully with the playoff push coming, I'll be able to post a little more often. I promise: Unless it's huge or breaking, nothing Packers until at least the day after the first regular season game (and even then, just probably a commentary on the game).
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Is it Possible?
We can all talk about how the last six games are games the Brewers "should have won anyway", like they are unimportant or don't matter. But even the worst team DOES win games occasionally and wins are wins when it comes down to the final record. So this streak is very important.
The pitching--starters, middle relief, end of game--have been truly remarkable. It's provided a quality start (pretty meaningless stat, but it does show the consistency over time) in nearly every game for 2 weeks. This isn't totally unexpected or fluky.
The real question is, with the trading deadline having passed with the Brewers acquiring ok depth for the infield, but no difference makers, can the Brewers survive with Casey McGehee playing regularly at 3B and Yuni at SS?
The answer, like most answers tend be, is "it depends". IF (a big IF) Yuni can remain reasonably productive offensively with the occasional "What you are DOING??" moment defensively, I'm now actually ok with him there. Even a month ago, Casey was the bigger concern and honestly, that remains true today. He's hit SOMEWHAT better over the last month, but is still short of what is needed and he's woefully inadequate defensively. The real issue is a player could turn it around offensively far more easily than they can become good defensive players. (Especially with Casey because he's slow and has limited range).
With the pickup of Hairston and Lopez, Roenicke MUST start giving consistent playing time to Hairston (putting him and Lopez at whatever position they perform best--they are both versatile to play either 2B/3B consistently and while not ideal, either can play SS). The defense must be put out there to help the pitching, but NEVER again this season should that desire for defense trump utter offensive ineptitude like that of Craig Counsell.
That means Counsell has to be released. It will be painful and a slap to his pride and the "hometown guy". But if there are players that provide the defense RR wants and provide better offense, then Counsell is not useful as either a defensive replacement or a late-inning pinch hitter.
The Brewers are in control of the division and their playoff future. I hope every decision (of both action and inaction) the team makes is one that helps keep that control.
The pitching--starters, middle relief, end of game--have been truly remarkable. It's provided a quality start (pretty meaningless stat, but it does show the consistency over time) in nearly every game for 2 weeks. This isn't totally unexpected or fluky.
The real question is, with the trading deadline having passed with the Brewers acquiring ok depth for the infield, but no difference makers, can the Brewers survive with Casey McGehee playing regularly at 3B and Yuni at SS?
The answer, like most answers tend be, is "it depends". IF (a big IF) Yuni can remain reasonably productive offensively with the occasional "What you are DOING??" moment defensively, I'm now actually ok with him there. Even a month ago, Casey was the bigger concern and honestly, that remains true today. He's hit SOMEWHAT better over the last month, but is still short of what is needed and he's woefully inadequate defensively. The real issue is a player could turn it around offensively far more easily than they can become good defensive players. (Especially with Casey because he's slow and has limited range).
With the pickup of Hairston and Lopez, Roenicke MUST start giving consistent playing time to Hairston (putting him and Lopez at whatever position they perform best--they are both versatile to play either 2B/3B consistently and while not ideal, either can play SS). The defense must be put out there to help the pitching, but NEVER again this season should that desire for defense trump utter offensive ineptitude like that of Craig Counsell.
That means Counsell has to be released. It will be painful and a slap to his pride and the "hometown guy". But if there are players that provide the defense RR wants and provide better offense, then Counsell is not useful as either a defensive replacement or a late-inning pinch hitter.
The Brewers are in control of the division and their playoff future. I hope every decision (of both action and inaction) the team makes is one that helps keep that control.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Does Prince need to sit?
Nah, I'm not saying for days and days or anything...but just a day or 2.
To my eye, he's pressing. His at-bat in the 9th inning exemplified that more than any other at-bat I've seen from ANY batter this year. Of course, I'm not saying he's hit the wall or is terrible. With Yuni, incessant pop ups and weak grounders are expected. But in that 9th inning, Prince just waved at 3 straight pitches that were close-ish, but easily off the plate and not particularly nasty.
He's lost much of the plate discipline and patience we saw earlier this year and much of last year that basically forced the pitcher to walk him because he just wasn't going to switch at a pitch he couldn't hit. Additionally, with Rickie behind Prince for the last 6 games (right, 6?), the pitcher at least has had to pause and just not just give Prince the unintentional, intentional walk.
I know Prince wants to play everyday and I absolutely HATE taking a legitimate bat out of the lineup, but I think it's for the greater good to just give him a day or 2.
I've been absent for a bit, so I want to do a quick hit, but hopefully, I can put together a more complete post on options for the left side of the infield. (Hint: See the title of the blog).
To my eye, he's pressing. His at-bat in the 9th inning exemplified that more than any other at-bat I've seen from ANY batter this year. Of course, I'm not saying he's hit the wall or is terrible. With Yuni, incessant pop ups and weak grounders are expected. But in that 9th inning, Prince just waved at 3 straight pitches that were close-ish, but easily off the plate and not particularly nasty.
He's lost much of the plate discipline and patience we saw earlier this year and much of last year that basically forced the pitcher to walk him because he just wasn't going to switch at a pitch he couldn't hit. Additionally, with Rickie behind Prince for the last 6 games (right, 6?), the pitcher at least has had to pause and just not just give Prince the unintentional, intentional walk.
I know Prince wants to play everyday and I absolutely HATE taking a legitimate bat out of the lineup, but I think it's for the greater good to just give him a day or 2.
I've been absent for a bit, so I want to do a quick hit, but hopefully, I can put together a more complete post on options for the left side of the infield. (Hint: See the title of the blog).
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
What does the trade for K-Rod do for the Brewers?
The news of the trade of 2 players to be named later for Francisco Rodriguez broke minutes after the All-Star Game ended last night. The very first tweet I got on the issue was from Jon Heyman and I was literally typing a reply to him along the lines of "Huh? Is this a butt tweet? A tweet intended to be a direct message? A tweet sent before it was finished?" But more and more news came out on it and I realized it was real.
My first reaction was "meh", "uggh" and "But wait, we still have huge problems at SS and 3B?" As debate went on over whether the move was smart, whether it helped the Brewers, what it cost them, etc I came around to realize that it PROBABLY helps the team.
The players on the list from which the 2 TBNL will be chosen are likely to mid-level (at least relative to the players in the organization) but nothing major or game-changing. This is a pure salary dump by the Mets and even then, not really a salary "dump", but rather a desperation move to avoid the vesting of the option on K-Rod's contract for 2012. (It requires 100 games finished in 2010-2011 AND 55 games finished in 2011). He had 46 games finished in 2010 and has 34 already this year. 20 would get him to the 100, but he needs 21 to get to the 55. Much like most of the internet realized, there is no way he finishes 21 games this year. Even if John Axford is catastrophically injured or implodes, a) there aren't likely to be a HUGE number of save opportunities anyway and b) K-Rod could still finish 20 games and avoid the vesting option...and the Brewers can use other options to fill the need (Saito/Hawkins/Loe). It's a non-issue.
If he can keep his focus and not make an issue of not being "the closer", K-Rod definitely gives the Brewers a much more stable option in the 8th. His WHIP is a little sketchy (certainly not truly dominant like he was in years past), but his K/9 is still nice at 9.7 and can put movement on a fastball in the low 90's. I believe the real benefit is this lets RRR truly go on matchups rather than roles. I think for a long time, he was locked into Loe as 8th inning guy because Saito was injured, and maybe he didn't trust Hawkins. But with K-Rod easily being able to go 2 or 3 days in a row, Loe can be used against RHB where he has a huge advantage and K-Rod can still be used occasionally to spell Axford to close. (That makes the Brewers bullpen very dangerous if RRR can push Ax 3 games in a row and not have to really worry about the next day knowing he can use K-Rod to close there if he has to).
Taking on financial costs in this trade, rather than giving up much in the way of talent still leaves Melvin with a few (a very few) pieces to try to execute a trade for SS help. But, honestly, I am still very committed to the idea now that they might as well stick with Yuni and IF McGehee just continues to struggle, they must call up Taylor Green at least to TRY to see if he can succeed in the majors at 3B. I do not want Furcal--who is an improvement, but too much of an injury risk---and the rest of the possible trade options just don't offer enough improvement over Yuni (how sad is THAT?).
My first reaction was "meh", "uggh" and "But wait, we still have huge problems at SS and 3B?" As debate went on over whether the move was smart, whether it helped the Brewers, what it cost them, etc I came around to realize that it PROBABLY helps the team.
The players on the list from which the 2 TBNL will be chosen are likely to mid-level (at least relative to the players in the organization) but nothing major or game-changing. This is a pure salary dump by the Mets and even then, not really a salary "dump", but rather a desperation move to avoid the vesting of the option on K-Rod's contract for 2012. (It requires 100 games finished in 2010-2011 AND 55 games finished in 2011). He had 46 games finished in 2010 and has 34 already this year. 20 would get him to the 100, but he needs 21 to get to the 55. Much like most of the internet realized, there is no way he finishes 21 games this year. Even if John Axford is catastrophically injured or implodes, a) there aren't likely to be a HUGE number of save opportunities anyway and b) K-Rod could still finish 20 games and avoid the vesting option...and the Brewers can use other options to fill the need (Saito/Hawkins/Loe). It's a non-issue.
If he can keep his focus and not make an issue of not being "the closer", K-Rod definitely gives the Brewers a much more stable option in the 8th. His WHIP is a little sketchy (certainly not truly dominant like he was in years past), but his K/9 is still nice at 9.7 and can put movement on a fastball in the low 90's. I believe the real benefit is this lets RRR truly go on matchups rather than roles. I think for a long time, he was locked into Loe as 8th inning guy because Saito was injured, and maybe he didn't trust Hawkins. But with K-Rod easily being able to go 2 or 3 days in a row, Loe can be used against RHB where he has a huge advantage and K-Rod can still be used occasionally to spell Axford to close. (That makes the Brewers bullpen very dangerous if RRR can push Ax 3 games in a row and not have to really worry about the next day knowing he can use K-Rod to close there if he has to).
Taking on financial costs in this trade, rather than giving up much in the way of talent still leaves Melvin with a few (a very few) pieces to try to execute a trade for SS help. But, honestly, I am still very committed to the idea now that they might as well stick with Yuni and IF McGehee just continues to struggle, they must call up Taylor Green at least to TRY to see if he can succeed in the majors at 3B. I do not want Furcal--who is an improvement, but too much of an injury risk---and the rest of the possible trade options just don't offer enough improvement over Yuni (how sad is THAT?).
Monday, July 11, 2011
1st Half Review
I'm going to skip the 1st half grade thing (others do it better). I'm not going to rant. (How can you rant with the team in first place)?
I'm just going to sum up the good, bad and ugly.
The Good
Prince, Braun and Axford are really the VERY good. There's really nothing to say here, because we all know what's what with these 3. Nyjer Morgan is part of the good. He brings extraordinary energy to the game. But more importantly, he's filled another potential black hole on offense. Consider all the game-changing, lead-taking plays where he's scored the tying or game-winning run, got the game-winning hit or was an important part of a late-game win. And while he does give up something on defense, he's still a plus defender in CF.
Rickie falls into the pretty good to very good category. He leads MLB 2B in HR and R and has a very good SLG. He also leads MLB 2B in E (yes, I know...I'm trying to cut down this already ridiculously long post) and has a middling OBP and BA.
The Bad
Greinke. He has amazing peripherals with 12.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 and a decent WHIP at 1.251. But they aren't correlating to results. This is largely because of his HRs (and especially HR with runners on). Sure, he has a great record, but that's largely a function of run support and W-L is just the worst possible way to evaluate a pitcher anyway. I ONLY put him in the bad because of the expectations. A very good season from Randy Wolf, a fairly stable season from Chris Narveson and the W-L on Greinke's starts has covered much of the real worries we'd be having. I still strongly suspect there's a mechanical blip or glitch that is out there that can be fixed and BAM! he's back to rock solid. (Take a look at his last start where RRR went out to the mound and basically forced him to pitch from the windup with runners on). Without fixing the flaw, 2 things could happen and both aren't good: 1) He keeps the peripherals but still gives up the runs. The bad of this is the luck of getting run support for his starts could easily go away. 2) The results finally start matching the peripherals. But this seems very unlikely because it's the flaw itself that's keeping them from matching.
The Ugly
Yuni. Forget it. You know it, I know it, Ray Charles knows it. There are no minor league options here at all and trading for an improvement is the only option, which is probably very limited. (The Brewers probably don't have the pieces to get a very good replacement, the replacement that could easily be had isn't likely to be a significant improvement or the middle replacement options are going to require taking on salary and injury risk).
Casey. I believe he at least has the ability or opportunity to get better. Maybe pitchers have adjusted. Maybe he's just regressed. But he has the history of actually DOING it. Yuni has no history at all. But, the leash on McGehee MUST be short. As I tweeted earlier today, if this season is really "all-in", then every option has to be considered. A failure to do so is abandoning all the other moves that were made this year in either misguided belief he'll "just get better" or effort to be nice to Casey. Casey's a big boy. His feelings are unimportant. Hit or get out of the way. Fixing this problem is probably even harder than the Yuni problem, mainly because there are even fewer trade options for a 3B than a SS. However, there is well-performing option at AAA right now.
My next point leads a little to my next "ugly", but this recently disclosed plan to have Gamel split time at 3B and 1B is truly idiotic. Gamel had, up to now, played nearly exclusively at 1B in Nashville. (Likely in an effort to have him be a strong competitor for the 1B job next season to replace Prince). Plus, he's shown no real ability to defend 3B. (And some even question his ability to hit). So someone really has to explain to me why taking time from the full-time 3B (who is doing very well there) and taking the full-time 1B away from THAT position is going to help either one of them. It's stupid and as many will tell you, I refuse to abide stupidity. Don't want to promote Green to spell McGehee? Fine, whatever. But this plan, if implemented is a strong competitor to my next "ugly" for dumb, dumb, dumb.
RRR's bullpen mismangement
Setting aside the last week or so, make no mistake: RR has failed, to any observer's eye, to properly manage the bullpen. Certainly, there have been injuries that forced some into "roles" that they probably never were going to be used in. And, ineffectiveness from those that are actually in their "roles" can frustrate anyone. But the biggest issue is RRR's stubborn attitude. Locking guys into set roles like Loe as "8th inning guy" is just...mind-boggling. Every stat has shown he's far less effective vs LHB than RHB. So if you know well ahead of time the 8th inning will feature 2 of 3 or 3 of 4 LHB, then it's folly to run a guy out there that has a worse split when there's a guy just sitting out there that is very good vs LHB and is good enough overall to not be a LOOGY.
The rest of the team ranges from "that's nice" (Lucroy) to "meh" (Hart). Most of the rest of the starting rotation and bullpen fall into "that's good" category. (I don't count crash and burns like Herrera or injuries here).
The team is nicely poised to win the NL Central. Given Philadelphia and Atlanta's performance, it's seems very, very likely 1 of them will win the NL East and the other the Wild Card. That puts the Brewers in the spot of having to win the division. The real problem is only that there are a lot of competitors. Houston and Chicago are done, forget it. Cincinatti could be losing its grip if it can't stabilize its rotation or if Cordero goes into full-on meltdown, but they are still a strong competitor that can't be dismissed. Pittsburgh's a wild card---they are young and unproven--can they hold on when it gets ugly in September? St Louis is probably the best team of the 3 right now, but their offense is going to have to overcome their bullpen and the back end of their rotation. If RRR sticks with a pen management plan that is match-up based rather than role-based, that will be a huge help. I'm also going to assume that at some point, one of the following 3 things happen: a trade for SS improvement, management loses patience with Casey and brings up Green (or Gamel--uggh), or McGehee just turns it around. If those things come true, that may be enough to put the Brewers in it to win it at the end. To me, the question mark is Greinke. If he can fix whatever it is that is going on, that gives yet another solid starting pitcher. If that happens, too, then the Brewers could easily pull away with a comfortable lead by mid-September. Either way, it means a lot of fun and interesting baseball in the next 2 1/2 months.
I'm just going to sum up the good, bad and ugly.
The Good
Prince, Braun and Axford are really the VERY good. There's really nothing to say here, because we all know what's what with these 3. Nyjer Morgan is part of the good. He brings extraordinary energy to the game. But more importantly, he's filled another potential black hole on offense. Consider all the game-changing, lead-taking plays where he's scored the tying or game-winning run, got the game-winning hit or was an important part of a late-game win. And while he does give up something on defense, he's still a plus defender in CF.
Rickie falls into the pretty good to very good category. He leads MLB 2B in HR and R and has a very good SLG. He also leads MLB 2B in E (yes, I know...I'm trying to cut down this already ridiculously long post) and has a middling OBP and BA.
The Bad
Greinke. He has amazing peripherals with 12.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 and a decent WHIP at 1.251. But they aren't correlating to results. This is largely because of his HRs (and especially HR with runners on). Sure, he has a great record, but that's largely a function of run support and W-L is just the worst possible way to evaluate a pitcher anyway. I ONLY put him in the bad because of the expectations. A very good season from Randy Wolf, a fairly stable season from Chris Narveson and the W-L on Greinke's starts has covered much of the real worries we'd be having. I still strongly suspect there's a mechanical blip or glitch that is out there that can be fixed and BAM! he's back to rock solid. (Take a look at his last start where RRR went out to the mound and basically forced him to pitch from the windup with runners on). Without fixing the flaw, 2 things could happen and both aren't good: 1) He keeps the peripherals but still gives up the runs. The bad of this is the luck of getting run support for his starts could easily go away. 2) The results finally start matching the peripherals. But this seems very unlikely because it's the flaw itself that's keeping them from matching.
The Ugly
Yuni. Forget it. You know it, I know it, Ray Charles knows it. There are no minor league options here at all and trading for an improvement is the only option, which is probably very limited. (The Brewers probably don't have the pieces to get a very good replacement, the replacement that could easily be had isn't likely to be a significant improvement or the middle replacement options are going to require taking on salary and injury risk).
Casey. I believe he at least has the ability or opportunity to get better. Maybe pitchers have adjusted. Maybe he's just regressed. But he has the history of actually DOING it. Yuni has no history at all. But, the leash on McGehee MUST be short. As I tweeted earlier today, if this season is really "all-in", then every option has to be considered. A failure to do so is abandoning all the other moves that were made this year in either misguided belief he'll "just get better" or effort to be nice to Casey. Casey's a big boy. His feelings are unimportant. Hit or get out of the way. Fixing this problem is probably even harder than the Yuni problem, mainly because there are even fewer trade options for a 3B than a SS. However, there is well-performing option at AAA right now.
My next point leads a little to my next "ugly", but this recently disclosed plan to have Gamel split time at 3B and 1B is truly idiotic. Gamel had, up to now, played nearly exclusively at 1B in Nashville. (Likely in an effort to have him be a strong competitor for the 1B job next season to replace Prince). Plus, he's shown no real ability to defend 3B. (And some even question his ability to hit). So someone really has to explain to me why taking time from the full-time 3B (who is doing very well there) and taking the full-time 1B away from THAT position is going to help either one of them. It's stupid and as many will tell you, I refuse to abide stupidity. Don't want to promote Green to spell McGehee? Fine, whatever. But this plan, if implemented is a strong competitor to my next "ugly" for dumb, dumb, dumb.
RRR's bullpen mismangement
Setting aside the last week or so, make no mistake: RR has failed, to any observer's eye, to properly manage the bullpen. Certainly, there have been injuries that forced some into "roles" that they probably never were going to be used in. And, ineffectiveness from those that are actually in their "roles" can frustrate anyone. But the biggest issue is RRR's stubborn attitude. Locking guys into set roles like Loe as "8th inning guy" is just...mind-boggling. Every stat has shown he's far less effective vs LHB than RHB. So if you know well ahead of time the 8th inning will feature 2 of 3 or 3 of 4 LHB, then it's folly to run a guy out there that has a worse split when there's a guy just sitting out there that is very good vs LHB and is good enough overall to not be a LOOGY.
The rest of the team ranges from "that's nice" (Lucroy) to "meh" (Hart). Most of the rest of the starting rotation and bullpen fall into "that's good" category. (I don't count crash and burns like Herrera or injuries here).
The team is nicely poised to win the NL Central. Given Philadelphia and Atlanta's performance, it's seems very, very likely 1 of them will win the NL East and the other the Wild Card. That puts the Brewers in the spot of having to win the division. The real problem is only that there are a lot of competitors. Houston and Chicago are done, forget it. Cincinatti could be losing its grip if it can't stabilize its rotation or if Cordero goes into full-on meltdown, but they are still a strong competitor that can't be dismissed. Pittsburgh's a wild card---they are young and unproven--can they hold on when it gets ugly in September? St Louis is probably the best team of the 3 right now, but their offense is going to have to overcome their bullpen and the back end of their rotation. If RRR sticks with a pen management plan that is match-up based rather than role-based, that will be a huge help. I'm also going to assume that at some point, one of the following 3 things happen: a trade for SS improvement, management loses patience with Casey and brings up Green (or Gamel--uggh), or McGehee just turns it around. If those things come true, that may be enough to put the Brewers in it to win it at the end. To me, the question mark is Greinke. If he can fix whatever it is that is going on, that gives yet another solid starting pitcher. If that happens, too, then the Brewers could easily pull away with a comfortable lead by mid-September. Either way, it means a lot of fun and interesting baseball in the next 2 1/2 months.
Friday, July 8, 2011
This is what the rest of the season is...
The last couple games have restored my (and probably most fans') faith that this team IS talented enough to win and probably, without a catastrophe, talented enough to win enough games to either win the division or be very close at the very end.
The thing I (and most fans) are going to have to come to terms with is that much of the way the team has played the last couple weeks is likely the way much of the rest of the season may very well go. None of the other competitors for the division have teams that are obviously dominant or well-rounded enough to take control. The Reds starting rotation is muddled right now and frankly, just not that good. And their offense just doesn't have enough complementary pieces to help Votto, Bruce and Phillips. The Cardinals haven't completely solved their bullpen problem and unless they complete a trade for Heath Bell, they might not do so. The Pirates? Oh come on, now, I babble enough here that it's not even worth wasting time with them. (Ok, fine: McCutcheon is a very good and exciting player. Their starting rotation is just good enough to make people pay attention and their closer is as good as it gets--right now. I'd be very happy for the Pirates if they finally finish over .500).
But much like the Reds and Cards have flaws, so do the Brewers. That's much of the reason why the 3 teams have gone through courses of very good and Good Lord! turrrible. Thing is, in my opinion, the Brewers are better equipped to either simply succeed despite their flaws or fix them. The Brewers have a by far better starting rotation overall and right now, their "worst" starter is a guy is the most likely to get better and return to his career norms than he is to just get worse. If Greinke can finally get his results (runs, essentially) to match his peripheral stats (K/9, K:BB, BB) he could become fairly dominant. I believe with much of what Nick with @BerniesCrew was saying last Sunday on the live blog that perhaps a minor mechanical correction, especially when in the stretch could be all this takes. His strand rate is also at a low level that can't really be expected to continue. (It's so low in large part because he's not stranding many because many baserunners are being cleared with home runs).
RRR has seemed to lock into the platoon of Morgan/Gomez and that's really done a lot in eliminating one black hole in the lineup. Corey seems to be perhaps improving at the plate, so that will help. That really just leaves the worst player in baseball and the Most Unimproved Player in baseball. Yuni has shown no real ability to be better, so we shouldn't expect him to just get good. But McGehee has proven he CAN hit, CAN drive the ball. More patience with him is just as likely to pay off as a replacement is to be great. A replacement for Yuni has to be found.
Lastly, the bullpen "problems" are just not nearly as bad as casual fans might think. Kameron Loe is not terrible nor does he need to be burned at the stake. But he can't be used in situations where lefties are going to hit (or be likely to hit). But, he is an important asset against most RHB. Braddock MUST be used more efficiently. He's NOT a LOOGY and RRR would do well to start to understand this. Whether he's actually getting better or is just trying to give Loe a breather, RRR's bullpen management has been better in the past couple games. (But I agree with @BrewersBar that Braddock would have been better to use in the 8th than Hawkins tonight).
Essentially, largely only having to better use what this team has instead of having to go out and get actual replacements is what I think puts the Brewers in a better position than the Cardinals. And the Reds need improvements out of a lot more of their rotation than the other competitors.
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